Russia continues to export heavily crude oil and is using it to finance the war in Ukraine. How dependent is the world on Russian oil – and how dramatic would the consequences of completely abandoning it be?
More than three years after the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, there has been a lot of discussion recently about stronger sanctions on Russian oil exports. After a virtual meeting last week, the seven leading Western industrialized nations (G7) said it was time to “maximize pressure on Russia’s oil exports.”
After all, it is no secret that Russia is financing its war against Ukraine by exporting fossil raw materials. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia earned $192 billion last year from exports of crude oil and oil products alone.
Russia is the second largest oil exporter
Despite all the sanctions so far, Russia is still one of the big players on the oil market. Last year, Russia produced an average of 10.5 million barrels of oil per day – ten percent of global oil production. This put Russia in third place behind the USA and Saudi Arabia.
Looking at the largest oil exporting countries, Russia ranks second with 4.868 million barrels per day, behind Saudi Arabia (6.420 million barrels per day).
Where Russian oil exports go
But who actually buys Russian oil anymore? Since December 5, 2022, i.e. since the EU crude oil embargo against Russia came into force, until the end of August 2025, China bought 47 percent of Russian oil exports, calculates the independent research institute Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). India took another 38 percent of Russian oil exports, with 6 percent each going to the EU and Turkey.
The EU previously planned to completely stop importing Russian oil and gas on January 1, 2028. US President Donald Trump is taking this too slowly: “I don’t want them (Europe) to buy oil from Russia.” Meanwhile, Trump sees India and China as “the most important supporters” of the Russian war machine.
The 27 EU states had already banned most imports of Russian oil in 2022. However, exceptions still apply to Slovakia and Hungary, which continue to receive oil from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline; Hungary has even increased its imports.
Putin’s friend Orban justifies this with the risk of economic collapse if Hungary were to forego Russian energy. However, according to some experts, sufficient infrastructure has long been in place to supply Hungary with affordable oil and gas that does not come from Russia.
Can OPEC step into the breach for Russia?
But can Russian oil be replaced so easily? The fact is: Countries like China and India in particular need alternatives if Russian oil exports stop completely. Could the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) step into the breach here?
“OPEC could expand its production, but it would not be able to compensate for a complete loss of Russian oil exports,” emphasizes Thu Lan Nguyen, head of foreign exchange and raw materials analysis at Commerzbank, in an interview with Evidence Network.de. “Even if Saudi Arabia were to make full use of its spare capacity, it would not be enough.”
Brent oil could reach $80
A complete cessation of Russian oil exports would inevitably lead to an increase in the price of oil. Some experts paint gloomy scenarios here: “A complete failure would trigger a catastrophe in the price of oil,” says Jochen Stanzl, analyst at broker CMC Markets.
Commerzbank expert Nguyen takes a more sober view: “If Russian oil exports stop completely, the oil price could reach a level of around $80 for the North Sea Brent variety.”
However, this would still be a long way from historical highs. For comparison: To date, the highest average oil price for the year was recorded in 2012 at just under $112. The absolute record high dates back to the financial crisis year of 2008 and is $147.
Consequences for inflation and the global economy
Nevertheless, a significant increase in the price of oil would cause inflation to skyrocket in oil-importing countries and dampen growth. The US shale oil industry and the OPEC countries would benefit. Although the current US government would certainly welcome an expansion of domestic oil production, a rising oil price would not be in its interest.
“The US government remains interested in an oil price that remains below the $70 mark because of the inflationary effects of the tariffs,” emphasizes Wellenreiter expert Robert Rethfeld.
OPEC tipping the scales
In terms of the overall economic effects, it depends on how strong and, above all, how sustainable the increase in oil prices would be. “If there was only an initial boost and the oil price would then settle at this higher level, then the effect on inflation would be manageable,” explains raw materials expert Nguyen.
A lot depends on the reaction of the oil cartel OPEC: “If OPEC were to increase its production further and even faster, the price of oil would come down again, given the trend of falling demand,” says Nguyen.
Oil demand is likely to peak soon
In fact, demand for oil is likely to decline in the future anyway. Currently, it is primarily the global trade conflicts and the resulting reduced growth prospects for the two largest oil consumers, the USA and China, that are dampening demand for the “black gold”.
Against this background, the IEA expects a “massive global surplus” for the first half of 2026; supply is likely to exceed demand by around 3.3 million barrels per day – more than ever since the corona pandemic.
In the long term, the IEA expects global oil demand to peak at 105.6 million barrels per day in 2029 and then decline from 2030 onwards. The agency justifies the development with weak economic growth, global trade tensions, the increase in electric cars and the shift away from crude oil for energy production.
Just a question of political will?
The world may therefore be less dependent on Russian oil than it might seem at first glance. Even a complete waiver seems manageable under certain conditions. So in the end, is it just a question of political will to finally break away from Russian oil?
