The Opec+ turns on the oil tap more strongly from today. Are the prices for petrol and diesel at the petrol stations? Or does US President Trump put a strain on consumers?
How strongly does the Opec+ turn the oil tap on now?
Eight states of the Olverbund Opec+ will gradually return to their voluntary funding cuts. The reduction in daily production by 2.2 million barrels decided in 2023 is to be reversed in this way. As a result, the daily oil production of the Opec+ increases by almost 140,000 barrels every month from April.
What are the consequences of the oil price?
Market observers do not expect an immediate reaction of oil prices, because the Opec+ had already announced this step at the end of February. Today only the execution begins, so it is no longer a surprise for the markets. However, the production expansion of the Opec+ generally speaks for lower oil prices, as this should increase the offer on the oil market.
Commerzbank raw material expert Barbara Lambrecht, however, underlines that it is still completely unclear how much oil is actually coming onto the market. “Because these countries have also undertaken to compensate for their overproduction from the past. However, it is questionable whether the biggest deviators – especially Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia – actually adhere to their promises.” In the past, at least Iraq and Kazakhstan had only partially implemented.
Where do experts see the oil price 2025?
The bottom line is that the oil prices hardly moved off the spot in the first quarter of the current year. The crude oil of the North Sea variety Brent, which is important for Europe recently cost just under $ 75 – around 15 percent less than a year earlier. Experts tend to see the oil price 2025 under pressure. According to a current Reuters survey of 49 economists and analysts, they expect a Brent price of an average of $ 72.94 per barrel (159 liters) in the current year.
The forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) fits this year, according to which the oil market is oversupply this year with around 600,000 barrels per day. If the OPEC+ should increase the oil offer from April by almost 140,000 barrels per day from April and the overproduction in countries such as Kazakhstan remains, according to the IEA, the oversupply would increase by a further 400,000 barrels per day.
However, there are large risks on both the offer and the demand on the offer- and they are all related to the customs and sanction policy of US President Donald Trump.
How do they work Trump sanctions against Iran on oil prices?
Since his return to office in January, Trump has resumed his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic. For this purpose, the Iranian oil exports are to be pressed “to zero”. It was only in March that Trump imposed new sanctions, including against ships from the Iranian shadow fleet, with the help of which Iran has largely been able to bypass the previous sanctions. “Iranian oil exports were still around 1.4 million barrels per day,” emphasizes Commerzbank raw material expert Carsten Fritsch.
Trump also sees so -called secondary tariffs that would punish countries that continue to buy Iranian oil. Such punitive tariffs could announce Trump tomorrow, on the “Liberation Day”, which he titled. China is the largest importer of Iranian oil. “If the United States succeeds in significantly reducing Iranian oil exports, the oil market would be significantly tense,” emphasizes Fritsch.
And what about that Venezuela decree From Trump?
At the end of March, President Donald Trump signed a decree that a country will be occupied to all of his exports to the United States with a 25 percent in full from April 2 with a 25 percent customs. These “secondary physicians” are primarily directed against China, which dominates the black market for Venezuelan oil. The announcement of the new tariffs already increased oil prices, as they should lead to a lower global oil offer.
Do the US import tumbles come on crude oil from Canada and Mexico?
Tomorrow, Trump ends up in the beginning of March. Should there be a new postponement, the US refineries would have to pay a ten percent in a customs rate of the import of crude oil from Canada and 25 percent for crude oil imports from Mexico. That would significantly drive the oil prices. In this case, experts expect serious effects on the US refineries, because according to the US energy authority, these received around 60 percent of their daily crude oil imports from Canada last year.
And what about Russia?
Trump was recently “pissed off” about Russia’s President Vladimir Putin – and threatened him with special tariffs for customers of Russian oil. These could be 25 to 50 percent and come into force at any time. Should it come to this, this Moscow would make export more difficult and thus reduce the oil offer on the world market, which in turn would lead to increasing prices. Russia’s large customers include India and China.
Are there also arguments for falling oil prices?
Absolutely – and they too have to do with Trump. In view of the US president’s erratic customs policy, economists fear an economic flaut in the United States. Trump himself did not want to rule out a recession in a TV interview. The analysts of the US investment bank Goldman Sachs see a significantly increased risk of recession, the probability of this has increased from 20 to 35 percent in the next twelve months.
Experts also fear that Trump’s customs policy could result in less growth not only in the United States, but also in other major economies. However, this automatically meant a lower demand for oil – and thus lower prices.
Which seasonal factors are currently moving the oil price?
According to statistics, the months of March, April and usually positive months are for the oil price. The background is the so -called “Driving Season”: the period before Easter and until Pentecost usually goes hand in hand with a greatly increased traffic volume, which is reflected in increasing oil prices. In this country, Autobahn GmbH is expecting fuller long -distance streets for the coming weekend.
What does that mean for the prices at the petrol stations?
The prices at the petrol stations in the “Driving Season” tend tend to attract. In 2025, however, on average – just like the oil price – they should not make too big jumps up. A lot depends on the extent to which the mineral oil companies pass on any price changes to consumers at the petrol stations on the world market.
Diesel drivers in particular can currently hope for falling prices; The end of the heating season comes to pass, which typically lowers the demand for heating oil. In principle, heating oil and diesel are the same product, are only declared differently as heating oil and diesel.
