Donald Trump remains hard in the customs dispute with China – and even adds. 125 percent inches are now due for Chinese goods in the United States. Is Europe now expecting a wave of cheap products?
While US President Donald Trump has withdrawn in the trade conflict with the rest of the world and suspended special tariffs, he remains relentless in the dispute with China. According to a series of customs announcements and the respective countermeasures, the United States have now raised the import customs of Chinese goods to 125 percent. Previously, China had announced retaliation tariffs of 84 percent for US goods.
This continues the latest customs spiral between the world’s two largest economies. China emphasized that no trade war wanted, the state news agency Xinhua quoted from the Weißbuch to the tariffs. “But the Chinese government will never stand by and see how the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people are violated.” The country will take countermeasures and fight to the end.
China is the second largest importer
So far, China has been the third most important trading partner in the United States to Mexico and Canada. Last year, the USA and China exchanged goods and services worth around $ 580 billion – but with a clear surplus of the Chinese. Goods from China worth around $ 438 billion were sold to the United States – this made China the second largest importer.
“In 2024, the group ‘electromechanical and audiovisual devices and their parts and accessories made the largest proportion of Chinese exports to the United States,” said Wan-Hsin Liu from the Kiel Institute for World Economy. This is also due to the fact that large US companies such as Tesla and Apple also produce or assemble in China.
For example, most iPhones are produced in China – which means that they are now subject to protective tariffs. Apple initially plans to deliver iPhones from India to the USA – the iPhone manufacturer had set up his supply chain broader some time ago. Most smartphones of the California Group are still manufactured by the Taiwanese contract -ready Foxconn in China.
Also affected pharmaceuticals and clothing
China is also one of the most important manufacturers in the pharmaceutical industry. In addition to antibiotics, a large part of the chemical pre -products that are essential for the pharmaceutical industry are manufactured in China. So far, the pharmaceutical industry has been excluded from tariffs – Trump has recently threatened with clear tariffs on pharmaceutical imports.
According to Wan-Hsin Liu, furniture, shoes and clothing are also produced in China and exported to the USA. In addition to China, Bangladesh and Vietnam are also among the most important textile -producing countries and are affected by Trump’s customs announcements.
Flows of goods are redirected
What happens with all these Chinese products for which 125 percent inch have to be paid? The German Foreign Trade Association BGA warns that some of these products could now come to Europe. As a result, there could suddenly have many cheap products in masses, warns BGA President Dirk Jandura in an interview with the RBB: “Of course, China has many times our trade volume with the USA and that has to break somewhere.”
Jürgen Matthes from the IW Cologne also fears this: “The effects for Europe that arise from the US Customs Spiral with China are considerable,” explains the expert. He also assumes that the European market could be flooded with Chinese products. “So far, European companies have been faced with strong competition from China,” he emphasizes in an interview with Evidence Network.de.
This competition will now continue to grow: “China has enormous overcapacities, last year China’s global commercial surplus was almost $ 1,000 billion, about 30 percent of which was eliminated. Chinese goods worth around 440 billion dollars that the United States imported in 2024 are now largely diverted because of the high penalty tariffs,” said Jürgen Matthes.
Falling prices for Europe’s consumers?
And not only goods from China could now flood the European market. “During the first USA-China trade war, many Chinese companies partially shifted their production to ASEAN countries,” explains Wan-Hsin Liu from the IFW: “Some of these countries are now also confronted with very high customs sets on the part of the US government, so that alternative markets were also also being sought for these.”
After all, this could mean for consumers: some products in which the competitive pressure is particularly high could become cheaper. “The prices of products, parts and accessories that European companies from China import for their own production or business activities will also lose weight,” said Wan-Hsin Liu. Nevertheless, it also has dark sides. “This will lead to problems for our European manufacturers and dealers,” warns BGA President Jandura.
Import quotas Or tariffs?
The EU could proceed with import quotas, for example. In the case of an import quota, a maximum of the goods import of a certain amount is determined. According to IW expert Matthes, however, the question arises: “If you only restrict imports from China with a quota or are the global imports limited? This is not so trivial.”
The EU Commission has already announced that it wants to protect industrial companies from “indirect effects of trade diversion”. As the Handelsblatt learned from commission circles, contingents are also possible – if an import swim is found in the coming weeks.
According to Matthes, higher tariffs on Chinese imports to Europe are also conceivable in order to avert an import of import. “However, they may not alleviate the higher competitive pressure enough because imports are still possible and the increase in import is insulated too little – unless you raise very high tariffs,” he emphasizes.
Market shares in Emerging countries sink
And competitive pressure is not only growing on the European market: According to Jürgen Matthes, European companies could be confronted with cheap products from China, especially in emerging countries. “A relevant proportion of European exports goes to emerging countries – and China is already taking market shares from European companies. If Chinese exports, which were actually intended for the USA Evidence Network.de.
Wan -Hsin Liu from the IFW emphasizes that Europe would lose in a price war – even on the domestic market: “Even if the goods of European companies are of higher quality, the larger price differences can then lead to even more customers reaching the imported goods.”
