The United States countered EU tariffs of “39 percent” with counter-tariffs of 20 percent. But the EU tariffs are by no means as high as Trump assumes. The background is the formula on which its tariffs are based.
It is an impressive table that Trump held up yesterday: left the existing customs sets on US goods in the individual countries-on the right the new US tender. According to this, the United States will counter existing tariffs of 39 percent in the European Union with a 20 percent dial.
But if the EU actually raises tariffs of 39 percent on US goods-are no more than fair than fair? In other words: is Trump right?
Trump’s table with the alleged import tariffs of other countries on US goods and the planned US counter-tariffs.
The mathematics behind Trump’s customs duties
In fact, the numbers on the Trump table have nothing to do with the specific customs sets of the individual countries. On the homepage of the US trade officer you can read how they are calculated: The US trade deficit with a certain country is shared and then halved by the entire exports of this country to the USA.
But why are the US tariffs only half as high? Trump put it out like this: “We are good people.” Incidentally, financial journalist and author James Surowiecki was the first to explain this connection in a post on X.
Fake customs set of 39 percent
And so Trump comes to 39 and 20 percent in the case of the EU: the surplus of $ 235.6 billion is divided by $ 605.8 billion exports. This results in 0.39 – in Trump’s logic, an EU dial on US goods from 39 percent. This supposed customs rate of 39 percent, divided by 2, in turn reveals the new US customs set to EU imports of 20 percent.
This invoice can also be understood for other countries. A flat rate of ten percent applies to all countries with which the USA itself have a trade surplus.
How high are the EU tariffs really on US goods?
But what do the “real” numbers say? In fact, the EU customs duties are on average above those of the United States. The tariffs that the European Union raise on goods from the United States are based on the most favorable customs sets (MFN), which apply to all trading partners without preferred trade agreements.
The average EU customs rate on imports from countries that do not belong to the EU is 5.0 percent, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and is therefore significantly higher than the average customs set that the United States charges on imports (3.3 percent).
At first glance, the EU customs policy is more protected than the customs policy of the United States. However, if the product classes with their different import values are weighted, the difference is significantly lower. According to the WTO, the United States demands an average customs weighted according to the volume of the goods actually traded, of 2.2 percent – 2.7 percent are due in the EU.
EU protects farmers through higher tariffs
The tariffs vary significantly depending on the product category. For example, US tariffs on agricultural products are significantly lower than that of the European Union. The United States has to pay an import customs of 14.7 percent on the export of agricultural products to the EU, weighted 4.2 percent.
For comparison: Conversely, the EU countries in the United States have to pay an import customs of 7.5 percent on average or 2.5 percent. The EU thus tends to protect its farmers more than the United States. The situation is different for non-agricultural products: Here, the weighted customs duty on the import of US goods in the EU is just 0.9 percent-and thus below the corresponding US customs of 1.4 percent.
The VAT understanding understanding
But what Trump is really angry is the VAT in the European Union on US imports anyway: “I had problems with the EU, because … you have occupied us with tariffs. You do it in the form of a VAT that is about 20 percent,” Trump explained at the end of February.
However, the number is correct in this statement: “about 20 percent”. In fact, the average normal rate for VAT is almost 22 percent in European countries, and in Germany it is 19 percent.
In addition, Trump’s argument is more than questionable. Because VAT is not a customs – and it doesn’t look like that either. The WTO also sees it that way. After all, VAT is also due on products from the EU. You have to pay domestic companies equally. A car manufactured in the USA is therefore taxed with the same VAT rate as a car that was produced in the EU or somewhere else in the world.
Negotiating mass For the “Dealmaker”
Nevertheless, the bottom line is that – until yesterday – the EU customs policy was more protected than that of the United States. In this respect, Trump has a point. However, his announced counter -tariffs lack any basis: the EU’s average weighted EU on US goods is 2.7 percent – and not 39 percent.
But it is also clear that Trump’s numbers are based on a clear calculation. For the self -proclaimed “Dealmaker”, both the alleged 39 percent and his counter -customs of 20 percent are primarily negotiating mass in order to achieve a “cheaper deal” for the USA.
The biggest customs increases in history?
However, if the tariffs announced by Trump on imports from the EU and other countries actually come in the above April 9, this would be the greatest increase in customs in the history of the United States.
According to Commerzbank calculations, this would increase to around 20 percent, this would increase the effectiveness of the United States, i.e. the customs income as a percentage of the total import value. That would be an increase of 17 percentage points. For comparison: The notorious Smoot/Hawley College of 1930, which had devastating consequences for the global economy, increased the effective customs by around six percentage points.
