Despite the customs dispute with the USA, world trade has recently grown. But the conflict could have serious consequences for Europe. Meanwhile, Trump announces a deal with the EU – and new extracölle.
Despite the customs conflict triggered by US President Donald Trump, global trade attracted the worldwide trade in the first half of the year. Compared to the second half of the past year, the volume increased by $ 300 billion, as the economist from the UN World Trade and Development Conference (Unctad), Alessandro Nicita, told the AFP news agency. That is an increase of around 1.7 percent.
The reason for the increased trading volume is the “climber of 14 percent in US imports and six percent among the EU exports”, it said in a report by the Unctad. In contrast, imports have decreased by two percent in developing countries.
However, the UN authority warned of dangers for trading in the second half of the year. The continuing uncertainty about political measures, geopolitical tensions and signs of a slow -growing global growth is concerned about “.
Customs dispute harbors enormous gap potential in the EU
In the opinion of a trading expert, the customs dispute threatens to develop into a far -reaching conflict – with serious consequences for Europe. “For the first time since the Second World War, Americans and Europeans could not only face themselves as an economic competitor, but as an opponent with incompatible geopolitical ideas,” writes Laura von Daniels from the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP) in a scenario paper that is available to the German Press Agency.
The customs dispute with US President Trump mountains enormous gap potential, emphasizes the head of the SWP working group America. The costs of the US tariffs are unevenly distributed in the EU. Some members such as Germany, Ireland or Italy are more export -oriented and are therefore more affected. According to data from the Federal Statistical Office, the German exports to the United States fell to the lowest level in more than three years. Exports fell by 7.7 percent to the previous month to 12.1 billion euros and ensured the second decline in all German exports in a row.
“If these countries were carried away to enter into individual bilateral agreements with Trump, the power of the internal market would be reduced and the future of the EU would be threatened,” warns by Daniels. In addition, Trump will not stop mixing economic policy to split the EU, the expert writes. “While countries on the eastern flank see a potential withdrawal from the United States from Europe as an existential threat, other Member States rate the security policy implications than less dramatic.” This also weakens European reaction ability to Trump’s threats.
Trump provides the prospect of a letter to the EU
Most recently, Trump postponed the deadline for new tariffs on August 1st. Already in April he had introduced a base custom of ten percent to almost all imports from the EU. In addition, special tariffs apply to certain products, such as steel and aluminum and auto imports.
Yesterday, the US President announced a letter to the EU. When asked by a journalist whether he is optimistic about a deal, he said: “We are probably two days away from sending them a letter. We are in conversation with them. I just want to know that a letter means a deal.”
Frame paper from three sides?
Such a letter has not yet been expected in the EU Commission. “We stick to our principles, we defend our interests, we continue the work in good faith and we are preparing for all scenarios,” said President Ursula von der Leyen in a speech before the European Parliament today. According to the chairman of the trade committee in the European Parliament, Bernd Lange, both parties are currently only negotiating only a few pages.
The intended framework agreement is created as a “relatively limited paper” – the SPD European politician said. It could be generally stipulated that you can deal with certain import volume of cars, which can then be traded duty -free or for a small duty. Details would then have to be regulated later. For a long time, it also warned that the current “breathing space” had to be used in order to find a comprehensive package solution for all existing and threatened tariffs.
50 percent surcharge for copper imports?
From Daniels, a solution in which the USA completely withdraw its tariffs considers it unrealistic. For this, the EU would have to make huge concessions. Other scenarios are more realistic. For example, for a quick “deal” with Trump, a general US import duty from ten percent could accept most goods. In return, the US government could offer fixed quotas for duty-free importing certain goods- for example in special steel and aluminum products, according to the expert.
Regardless of the EU, the US President wants to introduce extracölle for certain industry imports. Trump announced yesterday. The copper future then jumped on a record high on the Comex exchange. Customs on medicines, semiconductors and “various other things” are also conceivable. At the beginning of the week, Trump had already published more than a dozen letters with customs specifications to different countries, especially in Asia.
$ 300 billion Additional import fees
With his customs policy, the Republican wants to correct alleged trade weights and achieve that more is produced in the United States. US Finance Minister Scott Bessent also promises to have a discharge of the entire additional import fees: by the end of 2025, he expects more than $ 300 billion.
The customs revenues should serve to at least partially countered Trump’s expensive election promise of large tax cuts. The EU Commission sees the tariffs as not justified and incompatible with the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
