Trump’s chaotic customs policy – first duties are announced, then put on hold again – ensures uncertainty worldwide. Because the effects of customs policy can be felt around the globe.
Less than two months ago, Donald Trump took over the office of US president. At that time, the Republican promised a “golden age” for the USA during his inauguration. Trump wants to reach this golden age with a restrictive economic policy that makes imports more expensive and, above all, promotes production in the USA. The central instrument of this policy is tariffs. Around Wednesday, 25 percent tariffs should be incurred on all steel and aluminum imports to the USA.
However, Trump’s customs policy is extremely erratic. So far, the tariffs that are to be raised on imports from Canada and Mexico have been stopped again and again. It is a constant back and forth for the affected countries.
Canada reacted with counter -tariffs
Last Tuesday, tariffs of 25 percent came into force, just two days later Trump had them exposed again-a number of Canadian goods were excluded from the 25 percent tariffs at the end of last week. The tariffs were suspended until April 2, as the punitive measures had already been postponed in early February.
However, the situation was only partially relaxed: Despite Trump’s withdrawal of some punitive measures, the government in Ottawa remains the same amount of goods worth just under 20 billion euros per year in its counter -tariffs. However, Premier Justin Trudeau postponed a second stage of the counter-tariffs planned for the end of March to significantly more US goods to April 2. The government in Ottawa only wants to expose the import taxes in Ottawa if Trump drops the trade restrictions entirely.
The head of government of Ontario, Doug Ford, threatened the US states of Minnesota, Michigan and New York with an extra fee of 25 percent on power exports. In many alcohol markets all over the country, US products were removed from the shelves.
And shortly after the tariffs were suspended last week, Trump renewed his customs threats: customs duties of around 250 percent are particularly possible in the area of agriculture. “You have enormous tariffs,” said Trump in the White House. Canada would “rip off” the USA. “We will impose exactly the same tariffs for you unless they drop them,” announced the Republican.
For some – but not all – dairy products actually raise tariffs of much more than 200 percent, especially when imports go beyond the specified odds. Canada makes imports outside of defined quotas very expensive. This is how the domestic dairy industry should be protected. In fact, the US tariffs on milk goods from Canada are significantly lower. Canada’s so -called quantity regulation system has long been a dispute between the two neighboring countries.
Mexico’s President relies on dialogue
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum continues to use the preliminary steering of US President Trump on dialogue. US President Trump was back in the customs dispute with Mexico last week – as well as in the customs conflict with Canada – and had partially suspended the punitive tariffs until April 2, after they had only entered into force last Tuesday. The break in punitive tariffs now affects all imports covered by the Usmca free trade agreement.
Trump explained on his online platform Truth Social that he suspended the tariffs on Mexican imports “out of respect for President Sheinbaum”. The Mexican President now managed to stop the tariffs for the second time within a few weeks. Sheinbaum was now also “optimistic” with a view to the new period. At the beginning of February, Trump had already announced criminal levies on imports from Mexico, but then did not impose them when the government agreed to concessions, especially when it comes to border security.
For Mexico, the permanent introduction of US tariffs would be a bitter blow. The second largest economy in Latin America is almost entirely dependent on the United States. Mexico has announced that his exports to the United States, which fall under a regional trading pact without special tariffs, significantly increase in the coming weeks.
At the moment, more than half of the goods that are delivered from Mexico to the USA are compliant with the trade agreement between the USA, Mexico and Canada (USMCA), says Minister of Economics Marcelo Ebrard. Ebrard treasures that this number could increase to 85 to 90 percent, since companies could switch their export practices from shipping under the so -called most privacy clause to the USMCA. Parts of the automotive sector in particular would have greater difficulties to comply with the provisions.
Puncture tariffs for China and counter -tariffs
The trade dispute between China and the USA is particularly charged: Shortly after taking office, US President Trump initially imposed special tariffs from ten percent on imports from China and then doubled to 20 percent on March 4. This prompted China to raise retaliation duties on US agricultural exports and impose trade restrictions on 25 US companies. The Chinese tariffs of ten to 15 percentage points on agricultural products from the United States came into force on Monday.
In mid-March, additional tariffs are also to be introduced from the US side in 2018 on steel and aluminum products from China. And the Trump government apparently doesn’t just want to limit itself to tariffs. As the Reuters news agency learned, the United States is planning fees for creating in US ports of ships that are part of a fleet with ships built in China or under Chinese flag. “The national security and the economic prosperity of the United States are further jeopardized by China’s unfair trade practices in the areas of shipping, logistics and shipbuilding,” says the draft that Reuters could see.
The government of US President Donald Trump wants to revive domestic shipbuilding and weaken China’s influence on the global shipping industry. US representatives should also work to ensure that allies and partners are similar, otherwise retaliatory measures threaten.
Reciprocal tariffs meet Asia particularly hard
And China’s neighboring countries are also not spared by Trump’s customs policy. While China’s southern neighbors were still one of the winners in Trump’s first term as US President, this should change. In order to avoid the US CHINA tariffs in the United States, companies at that time relocated their supply chains on a large scale to countries such as India, Thailand and Vietnam.
However, the so-called reciprocal tariffs announced by Trump as well as the planned taxes on steel, aluminum and chip deliveries threaten Asia’s emerging countries. Mutual – so -called reciprocal – tariffs mean that the USA raise tariffs wherever they are currently less demanding than their trading partners. They should come into force at the beginning of April.
In Thailand and India in particular, the tariffs on imports from the USA are higher: According to an analysis by Oxford Economics, the difference between Thai import duties is on US products and the US tariffs to Thai goods at 5.3 percentage points. In India, the customs difference is 6.5 percentage points.
EU criticizes a lack of Willingness to negotiate
In the customs dispute with the USA, EU trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic has accused the government of President Trump a lack of willingness to negotiate. He also warned that the EU will react with countermeasures to protect its interests if there is no compromise.
The EU is currently only affected by the tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the USA from Wednesday – because the additional taxes of 25 percent apply without exceptions or exemptions and thus also meets European manufacturers.
Trump had already introduced additional tariffs on steel and aluminum during his first term. At that time, the EU reacted with surcharges to selected US products, such as jeans, whiskey and motorcycles. The tariffs on both sides had been exposed to Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden after an agreement, but this expires at the end of March.
Should Trump make serious and actually raise tariffs on imports from the EU, this could have far -reaching consequences for European companies: the products become more expensive and the heel should decrease. If the EU reacts to US goods, they would be more expensive for European consumers. The uncertainty about possible tariffs could also cause companies to postpone investments, which would further dampen economic growth.
