With numerous sanctions, the West tries to punish Russia for his attack on Ukraine – with a limited success. But experts see Russia’s economy in a severe crisis.
What result brought the past year?
Statistically speaking, the past year ran excellently for the Russian economy. Prime Minister Mikhail Mischustin spoke of 4.1 percent growth in gross domestic product at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin in early February.
A number of industrial branches were part of this growth: First and foremost, this is the armaments economy that is booming thanks to the expenses in the Russian military budget. In addition, the automotive industry increased its sales by 50 percent compared to the disaster year of 2023, the fertilizer industry by 30 percent.
What’s next?
All experts agree that growth will not continue at the same pace. The government hopes for a soft landing with an increase of 2.0 to 2.5 percent. Minister of Economic Affairs Maxim Reschetnikow warned that the growth of growth was already recognizable. The first industries have had to struggle with it since last November.
Independent analysts warn of major problems. “We see a lot of indicators: The festive day comes to an end,” said the well -known economist Natalja Subarwitsch. The officially mentioned figures are doubtful anyway, but even with that it is over. The growth will be low, inflation high – and that over a longer period of time.
With this thesis, even the brother of Defense Minister Andrej Belousow, Dmitri, who was employed by a state analysis center, recently agreed. He warned of stagflation – which means: high inflation rates with low or no growth.
Why are there any doubts about the further economic Development?
There is now a clear division of the economy. According to calculations by the Austrian Raiffeisenbank, the state has guaranteed a fifth of economic growth through direct investments. The indirect consequences are even higher.
While the armaments sector also benefited from state orders in 2025 and binds personnel with strong salary increases, other sectors were left behind. Inflation and the lack of trained workers are now preparing huge difficulties. They cannot keep up with the salaries in the armaments sector or the high premiums that the military pays for the front fighters.
Which industries are affected by the crisis?
The real estate sector in particular causes problems. The demand was supported with state -subsidized mortgages for a long time – since the Kremlin now spends the money elsewhere, the funds are missing here. The crisis has consequences for other sectors: the building materials industry and even the steel sector suffer. The coal sector is in a deep crisis.
The car market is also facing a decline again. The AEB industry association assumes a decline in new car sales from 15 percent to 1.4 million cars in the basic scenario. The reason is increasing taxes and once more problems with credit financing. 700,000 vehicles are on the heap and are waiting for a buyer. Many cars threaten the bankruptcy.
What effect do the sanctions have?
The sanctions in particular hit the raw material industry. Most recently, part of the shadow fleet of Russia was documented with sanctions, which significantly made it difficult to export oil. The export monopolist also caught the gas hard. Gazprom, the most important source of money for the Russian budget for a long time, suffered a loss of billions in 2024 – for the first time after a quarter of a century.
The group threatens to slip even deeper into the red numbers in 2025. Here the elimination of the European market and falling gas prices are noticeable. China is not a substitute. The hope of building a new pipeline there has not been fulfilled.
The Russian budget thus loses an enormous amount of income. Moscow has long benefited from money supplys that were created in the national wealth fund. But around 60 percent has been used up since the start of the war. Should US President Donald Trump implement his plans to increase oil production, Russia threatens further losses.
What is the biggest problem in the economy?
The massive pumping into the economy has led to overheating and driven inflation. In early February, inflation was 9.9 percent in the year, Putin recently admitted. The price increases are still significantly higher than the official statistics.
The central bank has been trying to capture the galloping inflation again for months. It has set the key interest rate to 21 percent – the highest level in more than 20 years.
While inflation has so far only reacted weakly, the private sector groaned under the conditions. Because loans have become practically unaffordable. This means that investments are hardly possible for entrepreneurs. This is also harmful to the long -term development of the economy.
With information from the news agency dpa
