The United States wants raw materials from Ukraine, the signing of an agreement should be imminent. What are the economic interests of US President Trump – and what can Kiev offer?
What is in the agreement between the USA and Ukraine?
The exact contract text is still unknown. The Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj confirmed the agreement with the United States on a raw material agreement. Both sides would have prepared a final version of an agreement.
A agreement must be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament before it can come into force, said Selenskyj. Already on Friday there could be a signing of US President Donald Trump and Selenskyj in Washington.
The Ukrainian President is said to have rejected a first draft of the agreement, whereupon Trump called Selenskyj a “dictator”. It was planned that Ukraine should commit itself to the delivery of raw materials with a total value of $ 500 billion in order to compensate for help paid for the war. Selenskyj, however, said he would not sign anything “what will pay for ten generations of Ukrainians” and left large parts of raw material deposits to the USA.
Now the United States may have been given. According to reports, both countries want to put up a jointly managed reconstruction for the Ukraine, which is severely destroyed as a result of the Russian attack war. Ukraine is then to be 50 percent of the future revenues from raw materials, which are deposited in the funds for the handling of the land treasures and other infrastructure. In addition to the rare earths that are important for technology products, it is about oil and gas that should be promoted together, said a Ukrainian government representative.
Selenskyj said that the question of security guarantees for Ukraine still has to be decided. He expects a comprehensive discussion with Trump to visit Washington. “I want to coordinate with the USA,” he said. The agreement is “only part of the overall picture,” said Olha Stepaneseyna, the deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, the Financial Times. “We have heard several times from the US government that it is part of a larger picture.”
Why does Trump want access to the raw materials of Ukraine?
First of all, the sale of the raw materials can bring in a lot of money. In which form the United States will benefit from it is not yet clear. It is also open to what extent the United States can access the raw materials itself. Trump is targeting strengthening domestic industry in the United States. In addition to protectionist measures, access to raw materials is central. Already in the election campaign he threatened German car manufacturers that they had to produce in the United States, and he also put tech companies under pressure.
With regard to the raw materials from Ukraine, a kind of pre -purchase right for the USA would be conceivable, possibly also at particularly affordable prices. Jürgen Matthes from the Institute of German Economy sees such a step critical: “What the United States is getting is no longer available for other countries and therefore not for the EU. Such an element would be selfish by the USA and ultimately also a kind of protectionism.”
Trump called the planned agreement a “trillion dollar deal”. He repeated his criticism of his predecessor Joe Biden: He “threw money around him as if it were a cotton candy,” said Trump. “We want this money back.” He did not yet say what exactly he understands this and how it fits the agreements of the raw material agreement.
Basically, according to economic expert Matthes, it cannot be ruled out that Trump acts “much less selfish” than it initially seemed. “The agreement stipulates a kind of deductible by Ukraine in its own reconstruction. This makes sense and correct,” said Matthes Evidence Network.de. The Europeans would also benefit from lower costs for reconstruction. The World Bank already puts the costs for reconstruction in Ukraine at at least $ 524 billion (around 506 billion euros) over the next ten years.
What raw materials does Ukraine have to offer?
Ukraine has a lot to offer, including numerous of the so -called critical raw materials that play a crucial role in the value chain, but can only be delivered by a few producers and are hard to replace. The EU has defined 34 critical raw materials that are used to manufacture electric vehicles, mobile phones, rocket systems, turbines, laser technology and other high -tech but also everyday electronic devices. The group of rare earths is also one of the critical raw materials. They are summarized under the collective term because they often occur together.
According to the Ukrainian Institute of Geology, the country has rare earths such as Lanthan, Cer, Neodym, Erbium and Yttrium. Research funded by the EU indicate that Ukraine has scandium reserves. Detailed data are secret.
Which soil treasures in Ukraine are it about?
According to the World Economic Forum, Ukraine is also a potential supplier of lithium, beryllium, manganese, gallium, zirconium, graphite, apatit, fluorite and nickel. According to the state geological service, the country has one of the largest confirmed lithium reserve in Europe, which is estimated at 500,000 tons. This trace element is essential for batteries, ceramics and glass. The graphite supplies, an important part of batteries for electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, make up 20 percent of global resources.
According to the scientific service of the Bundestag, the value for raw materials such as titanium, iron, neon, nickel and lithium can be between three and $ 11.5 trillion (almost eleven trillion euros).
In classic fossil raw materials such as coal, oil and natural gas, the country also has considerable resources. But these sources are also not fully developed or are under Russian control in areas. In total, five percent of the global mineral resources in Ukraine can be found. Ukraine ranks among the top ten in the world for several raw materials.
Can these raw materials be promoted in Ukraine?
According to mining and economic experts, Ukraine currently has no commercially operated mines for rare earths. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earths and many other important minerals – but not a reliable source of supply due to customs conflicts.
According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs, the government is working with western allies on projects to obtain critical materials. The government estimates the investment potential at around twelve to $ 15 billion by 2033. The state geological service stated that the government is preparing around 100 locations that are to be licensed and developed together.
But the much bigger problem is not the lack of infrastructure for dismantling – but the Russian war of attack. According to estimates by the Ukrainian thought factory WE Build Ukraine and the National Institute for Strategic Studies, around 40 percent of metal resources are under Russian control. The data dates from the first half of 2024, and since then the Russian troops in the eastern region of Donetsk have been advanced. The majority of the coal deposits that provided the steel industry before the war is also located in the east of the country and is currently not available.
Russia has occupied at least two Ukrainian lithium deposits during the war – one in Donetsk and another in the Saporischschja region in the southeast. Ukraine still controls lithium deposits in the central region of Kyrowohrad.
And what does Europe do?
The European countries, like the old US government under Joe Biden, most recently refused to have the attacked Ukraine supported. “That should be the attitude of everyone,” said Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example.
Before the outbreak of the war, the Europeans had closed a strategic partnership with Ukraine about access to rare earths. The EU’s goal was to make itself more independent of China. Ukraine became a partner of the European raw material alliance – then the war came.
The EU even submitted its own offer for the mineral resources for the third war on Monday when visiting the third year of the war on Monday, as the responsible EU Commissioner Stéphan Sejournée explained. “21 of the 30 rare earths that Europe needs could deliver Ukraine,” he said. It is a “win-win partnership”. But obviously the pressure from the USA was too great – although no security guarantees should be included in the agreement. However, the EU could not have done this either.
This Wednesday, Emmanuel Macron also informed the state and government heads of the EU countries by video conference about his recent talks with Trump. The switching should serve primarily to prepare the EU special summit on Thursday next week. At the meeting, the heads of state and government will advise on how to respond to the drastic change of course of the United States in Ukraine policy.
With information from Sabrina Fritz, ARD studio Brussels, Reuters, AFP and dpa
