The environmental impact of the increase in temperatures Because of the advance of climate change, it is undoubtedly one of the great mysteries that science is trying to elucidate. While they know what the general consequences will be, the challenge is in knowing when it will occur and how concrete will affect one or the other regions.
Likewise, the goal is held predict How the chaos caused by climate change will cause reactions to different levels, many of them in chain, directly or indirectly associated. There are many questions, in short, that still need an answer, but it is also possible to determine, roughly, what will be the impact environmental That is expected. It will be in these general conclusions that we will focus.
An increase of 4 degrees for 2100
Yes emissions of Gases In greenhouse effect they continue to the current rhythm, the stage is very pessimistic. However, it is also true that scientists work with certain models, depending on which they obtain certain conclusions. Therefore, it cannot be affirmed that certain temperatures as an immovable prognosis will be reached at the end of the century.
The reason is simple: in the event that the conditions contemplated in the model or pattern used to carry out the research several significantly in any reason (such as a lower emission of greenhouse gases for a change of energy model or, for example, by the discovery of new Technologiesetc.) Its reliability would be less, logically.
Clarified this, let’s see what environmental impact is expected when temperatures increase, according to science. To do this, let’s cite the prognosis of the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Expert Group on Climate Change or Intergovenmental Panel On Climate Change, hence its acronym.
The IPCC estimates that the earth’s temperature could increase 4 degrees Celsius on average by 2100. In the best case, it will do so around 2 degrees, with respect to the temperature in the pre-industrial era.
Other studies equally rigorous They expect higher temperatures in certain regions of the planet, being able to climb 6 degrees Celsius or even add 8 degrees more to mercury. This has recently concluded, for example, the new study presented by the Asian Development Bank (BAD), in which it analyzed the consequences of climate change in Asia and the Pacific.
What would happen if the temperature increased 2 degrees?
However, it is not necessary to paint such a scenario dramatic so that the planet (including natural and human ecosystems) suffers great impacts. If the average temperature of the planet increases 2 degrees, something that tries to avoid coordinating global efforts, the consequences would be irreversible.
However, to continue to the current rhythm of emissions, we will exceed this limit by 2050, according to the CPI. That is, we are bordering that red line, and that point of no return will mean an increase in environmental problems that are already suffering, increasing its intensity and frequency (extreme events), as well as the appearance of new ones.
Some, predictablebut not all, with which its appearance in this or that region permanently or temporarily will make an appearance of random or, if you want, following a logic that escapes science. The simile of the Russian roulette, in this case, could serve to understand what it is.
Extreme events and other consequences of climate change
The consequences of this freak environmental caused by global warming, they cover a wide range of issues. Among others: Reduction of basic resources, promoting water, food or other crises, as well as droughts, heat waves, more fires, greater floods, rise in sea level, alterations in ecosystems and reduction of the potential that different natural carbon sinks have, such as vegetation or oceans.
The scope of its impact will vary in the different regions of the planet, since climate change is characterized by general tendencies that vary locally in a much more unpredictable way when we want to make forecasts within a certain date.
In the long term, however, science has predicted the disappearance of numerous islands and coastal cities, either by being under the waters or by suffering extreme events that make them uninhabitable, for example, lack of water or a climatology extreme.
Environmentally these changes will involve great transformations at the geographical level in terms of fauna and flora (a green Arctic and an increasingly warm Europe, affected by the phenomenon of desertification, for example), both by migrations and causing extinctions and also benefits for some species. Currently, the increase in temperatures is already reducing the size of different animals.
The human being will also suffer more deaths from food and water loud produced by extreme events, as well as climatic migrations. A massive increase in climatic refugees in Mexico and Central America, East Africa and East Asia is expected, although it will be a generalized phenomenon that cannot be limited to these areas. Human movements that, in turn, will also involve environmental impacts.
To this we must unite other factors that also influence these consequences, such as the increase in pollution or the progress of the sixth great mass extinction, whose environmental impact is being tremendous. That is, it will be to absorb the CO2 of the atmosphere.
The solution, as is usually the case in other areas of ecology, requires a determined reaction that we could well define as revolutionary. There are no means solutions. Only a unique reaction, which had as pillars the change of model energetic and consumption, could make a difference.
Conclusions
Such is the purpose of the climate pact achieved at the United Nations Conference on the Climate changealthough it still has many weaknesses. Among others, the announcement of abandoning it from the United States, as well as not having a binding character or the fixation of more concrete objectives and, on the other hand, of mandatory compliance.
Your goal of maintaining heating global Below the 2 degrees Celsius, therefore, it is not accidental. Ideally, it is sought that the increase does not exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. Because, in short, avoiding the environmental impact of temperatures increases to preserve the balance of the planet and, therefore, the world as we know it.
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