The Atlantic hurricane season began in June, but as of mid-September, none had yet formed. The “fault” lies with a gigantic El Niño that is nipping storms in the bud.
A completely unusual calm reigns in the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane season opened in June, but no one has yet formed past mid-September not even one. This is the longest period without cyclones of this type since the beginning of satellite recordings to date, surpassing the historical records of September 11, 2002 and 2013.
The mechanism of the “Super El Niño”
What blocks the formation of hurricanes is the presence of an exceptional “Super El Niño”. This climate phenomenon warms the waters of the Pacific Ocean and, in turn, intensifies the strong high-altitude westerlies that blow over the Atlantic.
This high-altitude wind creates a vertical cut in the speed and direction of the currents, which it destroys hurricanes even before they manage to form and structure themselves. Furthermore, El Niño makes the atmosphere more stable, preventing the development of the thunderstorms necessary to create cyclones.
Only “minor storms” in the Atlantic
So far the Atlantic has only had five tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edward). Although they brought intense rain and winds to the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, none found the right conditions to evolve into a hurricane.
A big difference compared to the past: in 2005, for example, at the beginning of July there were already four storms and the season ended with a total of 15 hurricanes.
Energy moves to the Pacific
This unusual calm did not surprise meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, who had already predicted a subdued Atlantic season. The problem is that the large amount of energy accumulated in the climate system does not disappear: if the Atlantic remains calm, NOAA estimates a 70% probability that the central Pacific basin will experience an above-average storm season.
