While Italy catches its breath after months of searing heat, Indonesia is experiencing the worst fire season in the last eleven years, a gift from Super El Niño 2026 (as well as the ever-present and unignorable climate crisis). Since its official launch in June, Godzilla – this is the affectionate nickname given to the Child this year – has already made the climatic events that seasonally affect different regions of the world much more extreme. The New Scientist has made a prediction of what we can expect in the coming months, drawing up a sort of “Advent calendar” of all the gifts (which will continue well beyond Christmas) of El Niño.
End of 2026: disasters in Asia and Africa
We have to go back over a hundred years to see an early October still without hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean: now everyone is waiting for the first one, which according to the forecasts available at the time of writing should arrive shortly in the Gulf of Mexico. But the other side of the coin of this Atlantic calm is a strong peaceful agitation (unintended oxymoron). In fact, El Niño acts in opposite ways on the two oceans: in the Atlantic it strengthens the winds at high altitude, which dismantle storms before they become hurricanes; in the Pacific, however, it weakens them, allowing the air heated by the hot water to twist to form typhoons. Looking back we can understand what to expect: during the three previous Super El Niños, East Asia was hit by more than 20 typhoons in the autumn. This year the Philippines and Japan have already been hit, and more typhoons are likely as sea surface temperatures continue to rise.
On the other side of the world, in Africa, they are currently dealing with the consequences of the extreme drought of the (which should be) rainy season. A split in the continent is expected in November and December: on the one hand, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia will have to deal with floods and heavy rains; on the other Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe will record the lowest levels of rainfall in the last 75 years.
New Year amidst landslides and floods in the Americas
2027 will not start in the best way for Peruvians, who identified and gave the name to El Niño at the end of the 19th century: the country will have to deal with heavy floods and possible landslides, which could extend to North America and also hit California hard.
Floods and water stagnations could not only send sewage systems into a tailspin, contaminating drinking water and spreading bacterial infections such as cholera and leptospirosis, but also encourage the proliferation of mosquitoes, which transmit various viruses including dengue and malaria. “The most serious problems usually occur where anomalous weather conditions coincide with socio-economic inequalities,” says Rachel Lowe, an expert who studies the impact of climate on infectious diseases. To put it more down to earth: it always rains in the wet.
Coral bleaching and the return of heat
Last June we experienced the fourth episode of mass coral bleaching; at the end of next austral summer (which coincides with the beginning of our spring) ocean surface temperatures will reach their maximum, and reefs around the world will once again be at risk. “If we reach a point of no return, they will never return to the level they were before,” warns climate scientist Michael Meredith.
El Niño is expected to peak at the end of 2026, but NOAA expects the phenomenon to persist until March-May 2027; La Niña should arrive in the second half of the year, but forecasts are not precise. Looking back, Super El Niños have often been followed by Super La Niña, which causes extreme climate events opposite to El Niño, causing what is called “climate whiplash”. According to some experts, El Niño and La Niña are made more intense by climate change: «We find ourselves much more often in an El Niño or La Niña phase than in a neutral one: we can and must be ready», concludes Ilan Kelman of University College London.
