Is there a link between “transient phenomena” detected in Earth orbit by a telescope between 1949 and 1957 and nuclear tests carried out in the past?
A new study, available in pre-print version on Scientific Report, presents results that suggest an association between “transient phenomena” identified in Earth orbit – i.e. phenomena observed only once by a telescope – and nuclear activities carried out in the past.
The study. The authors used historic sky images from the Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS-I) — a large photographic astronomical survey conducted between 1949 and 1957 — and analyzed them as part of the VASCO (Vanishing & Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations) citizen science project.
The volunteers compared photographic plates acquired at different times, looking for “transients”, i.e. objects or events that appear and disappear between the images, limiting the analysis to the period before the launch of the first artificial satellite (i.e. before 1957) to avoid contamination from known space vehicles.
Results. Out of a total of 2,718 days between November 1949 and April 1957, transients were observed on 310 days, or about 11.4% of the period. Overall, 107,875 transient events were detected in this time interval. The number of transients recorded per single date ranged from 0 to 4,528. The authors highlight that the peak of 4,528 should not be interpreted as the number of objects in orbit at a given moment, since the same “object” could be intercepted by different observers or stop temporarily, thus multiplying the reports.
Curious data. By analyzing the correlations, it was observed that the dates of above-surface nuclear tests (conducted by the United States, the Soviet Union and Great Britain) show a high probability of coincidence with the transients. Further analyzes indicate a correlation (albeit modest) between the number of reports of UAP (“Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena”) phenomena on a given date and the number of transients identified: for each additional UAP reported on a date, an 8.5% increase in the number of transients was observed.
A curious fact: according to the authors, the last observation of a transient within a nuclear test window in this data set is dated March 17, 1956, although 38 more tests were conducted over the next 13 months.
Limits. The authors are cautious in interpreting these results. Stephen Bruehl of Vanderbilt University explains: «Among the hypotheses presented is that the transients could be unidentified objects (UFO/UAP) that reflected sunlight and were captured on the photographic plates of the time. But we do not exclude, indeed we invite further analysis, the hypothesis that there could be an effect of the radiation or emissions associated with nuclear tests on the Earth’s orbit or on the atmosphere, which favors the appearance or observation of these events”.
However, the authors point out that the data does not allow us to definitively confirm that the transients are extraterrestrial objects or UAPs, nor that the correlation with nuclear tests implies a causal relationship. It therefore remains to determine the importance of the associations detected, to improve the understanding of both the transients and the UAP phenomenon.
Next steps The paper has not yet been analyzed by other researchers. Further studies are needed which extend the analysis to the period after 1957, including the space age, to verify whether similar transients continue to occur and with what characteristics.
Further studies will then be needed to better understand the physical nature of the events: whether they are optical, atmospheric, satellite effects, or something completely different. The correlation with nuclear tests is suggestive, but must be treated with caution: it is necessary to verify that there are no other variables (for example atmospheric, meteorological, astronomical conditions) that could explain the increase in transients in those periods.
