The 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 3.8% probability of hitting the moon: an impact that would allow scientists to study a large -scale space collision.
A gigantic asteroid, initially believed to be a threat to the earth, now has a chance of 3.8% of hit the moonaccording to the latest data of the James Webb spatial telescope. The asteroid, large enough to rand an entire city to the ground, had made scientists fear a direct impact in February with our planet (3.1% probability, the highest ever measured), but thanks to more detailed observations the scientific community has excluded this possibility: The space rock will not affect the earth on 22 December 2032.
The danger has not passed. Save the earth has been discovered that the chances of an impact with the earthly satellite continue to rise. The Webb telescope, in fact, revealed a significant fact: the possibility that the celestial body reaches the moon is now 3.8%, a value also confirmed by the European Space Agency. In addition to tracing the asteroid trajectory, the new data have refined estimates on its size. If initially it was believed that it measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, now the scientists are more precise: The space rock would have a diameter between 53 and 67 metersan asteroid therefore that recalls what on June 30, 1908 hit Russia, destroying 2,000 square kilometers of forest.
Winning strategy. If the asteroid had maintained a 1% probability of impacting on earth, space agencies would have already started the development of missions to deviate it. Several strategies have been theorized to reject an asteroid on a collision course, including the use of nuclear or laser weapons. However, The only tactic so far tested on a real asteroid has been the Dart of NASA missionwhich in 2022 successfully modified the orbit of a small celestial body by crashing a probe.
A scientific opportunity. If on the one hand no one wanted an impact between the asteroid and the earth, now the scientific community “hopes” now that the Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the moon. An impact of these proportions could offer a unique opportunity to study the consequences of a large -scale space collision. “The direct observation of a lunar impact of this dimensions would be a precious opportunity for research on planetary defense,” said Richard Moissl of the European Space Agency.Mark Butchell, expert from the University of Kent, added that such an event would represent “a perfect experiment”, even visible with amateur and binoculars from the earth telescopes.
Meanwhile, James Webb telescope has revealed another surprising aspect of the asteroid.
Its physical properties seem to differ from those of the largest celestial bodiesprobably due to its rapid rotation and the lack of fine dust on the surface, a feature usually found in small asteroids. Further details will emerge with the new observations that the James Webb telescope will lead next month.
