The economic models have so far underestimated the impact of global warming on our savings: the situation reveals a study published on Environmental Research Letters, It is far worse than expected. In the event that the global temperature increased by 4 ° C on pre -industrial levels an average citizen would be 40% poorer, An estimate almost four times worse than previous searcheswhich stopped at 11%; If the increase was 2 ° C (an increasingly remote eventuality), the per capita GDP would fall by 16% – and not by 1.4%, as previously hypothesized.
The missing piece. What do these Plumbee predictions derive from? Simple: the new study took into consideration The impact of extreme climatic events on global supply chainswhich the previous economic models had not done. According to Timothy Neal, research coordinator, the analyzes that in the past had attributed a modest impact on the global economy to the high levels of global warming have had profound implications for climatic policies. The error, he claims, was taking into account the consequences of climate change Only locallyforgetting how floods and droughts can have much wider consequences.
Climatic globalization. According to some economists, losses due to global warming would be partly balanced by the fact that the increase in temperatures could be positive for some cold regions such as Canada, Russia and Northern Europe. However, says Neal, the Global Warming would affect all the countries of the world, because economies are interdependent and connected by trade. In short: we are all on the same boat-population, and if-for example-drought prevents you from sowing and collecting wheat in China the consequences we also hear them in Italy.
It is important to realize as soon as possible that climate change They are not just an ecological and environmental questionbut also economic and social. Mark Lawrence, an expert professor in climatic risk, concludes by remembering that the fact that the models have not so far reflected the real effects of the Global Warming He made us underestimate the importance of a timely political action against climate change and economic advantages that could have derived from it.
