By 2100 in 97% of countries there will be no number of children per woman sufficient to avoid a decline of the population: with what consequences?
In the next decades, the drop in births could be a more serious problem than overpopulation. This is demonstrated by an analysis published on Lancet which examines the Total fertility rate: the number of children per woman, indicator in decline practically everywhere in the world.
Empty cradles. In general, in order to be able to support a long -term generational change, the average number of children born per woman within the injury of the fertile age should be equal to or greater than 2.1. But this value is falling a little everywhere and, already in 2050, 76% of the countries will have a lower fertility rate. By 2100 198 countries considered in the study, 97% of them will be incurred in this problem.
Two different gears. The research was conducted by the Institute for Health Metals and Evaluation (IHME) of the Medicine School of the University of Washington, which developed these estimates starting from a large population study of 2021, the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Important data, if it is true that practically everywhere there will be a decrease in the number of children per woman, there will be anyway a demographically divided worldcharacterized by levels still relatively high of fruitfulness in a few and populous low -income countries.
African one in two newborn. In 2021 29% of the new born in the world came from countries of sub -Saharan Africa. In 2100, 54% of all children will be born in this region, more than one in two: “During the 21st century we will face upsetting social changes” comments Stein Emil Vollset, the first author of the work. “The world will have to take it simultaneously with a” baby boom “in some countries and a” baby bust “(ie a strong drop in births) in others”.
You are countercurrent. The global fertility rate has more than halved in the last 70 years, going from about 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, when more than half of the world population was already under the level of replacement of the population. In the next decades he will still fall, reaching 1.8 children in 2050 and 1.6 in 2100. Only six countries at the end of the century will have a number of children per woman exceeding 2.1: Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan. Consequently, in most of the world there will be a natural decline of the population, with a number of deaths higher than that of births. Only in 26 countries the opposite will still take place at the end of the century, and among these there are for example Uganda and Angola.
Two levels of tests. «Most of the world face the serious challenges related to economic growth with a workforce in contraction and how to take care of and financially providing an increasingly older population. At the same time, many of the countries with the most limited resources of Sub-Saharan Africa will have to support the youngest and fastest growing population on the planet, in some of the most politically and economically unstable places, asphyxiated by the heat and with weak health systems on earth ” adds Vollset.
What solutions? There is no magical recipe to raise world fertility, also because – the researchers subtine – in many points of view, the decline of fertility It is a success storywhich reflects great progress in accessing contraceptive methods and female education. More and more women choose to delay maternity or to have less children because new opportunities for education and work open up, an indispensable milestone for their rights and a guarantee of economic growth and well -being for the entire society.
Think beyond the boundaries. However, you can invest in “social policies that improve births such as better parental leave, free nursery schools, financial incentives, a greater guarantee of rights in the world of work” adds Natalia V. Bhattacharjee, co -author of the study and head of the scientific team of the Ihme. «These measures could cause a small rise in the fertility rate, but most countries will remain below the levels necessary for the replacement of the population. It will become necessary to rely on open migratory policies to support economic growth. The countries of sub -Saharan Africa have a vital resource that the societies that age are losing: a young population ».
