The Kosmos 482 probe, destined to explore Venus, failed and was trapped in an orbit around the earth. Now the Lander is in fall with an unpredictable trajectory.
Between 9 and 12 May 2025, an object launched by man in 1972 will cross the terrestrial atmosphere to return to Earth after more than half a century in orbit: This is the Soviet -probe descent module Kosmos 482 (cataloged as 1972-023e, n. 6073), a Forgotten fragment of the space race Which today returns protagonist (it is not the first time we talk about it) for satellite scientists and observers.
A piece of history. Launched as part of a program mission Veneration, Kosmos 482 was intended for explore the planet Venus. But, due to a malfunction of the upper stadium of the carrier rocket, The probe failed its trajectory interplanetary and was trapped in a highly elliptical orbit around the earth.
Among the debris left in orbit, The Lander still survives: a semi -final capsule in titanium designed to survive the infernal Venusian atmosphere. According to declassified historical documents, discovered by the specialist Anataly Zak, after the failure of the mission, the descent form was deliberately separated from the main bus by the Soviet operators in June 1972.
Space wreck. With an estimated mass of around 480-495 kilograms and a diameter of about 1 meter, the module is enclosed in a robust titanium shell, similar to a semi-tank “metal bucket”, able theoretically to resist the crossing of an atmosphere – Whether is Venus or, now, the terrestrial one. “Since it is a lander designed to survive the passage through the atmosphere of Venus, it is possible that it survives intact on the return through the terrestrial atmosphere and impact,” explained Langbroek, a researcher at Leiden’s Sattrackcam network, in the Netherlands.
Simulations. However, the scholar specifies that “there are some factors that make the return operation an unknown, such as the long return trajectory and the age of the object”. Using the Open-Source Tudat software (TU DELFT Astrodynamics Toolbox), Langbroek and colleague Dominic Dirkx of the Delft Technical University have developed a detailed return model. According to updated simulations at the beginning of May, the impact – assuming that the capsule does not disintegrate or be significantly abandoned – could take place at one speed of about 65-70 meters per second (i.e. approximately 240 km/h). I rIschi for the population, however, are considered modest, similar to those deriving from the fall of a small meteorite.
Unpredictable trajectory. Currently, the object follows an inclined orbit of 51.95 degrees compared to the equator, making it possible to return everywhere between the latitudes 52 ° N and 52 ° S, then Italy is excluded.
On May 3 he was on an orbit of 314 x 148 km, with the apogee (the point farthest from the earth) quickly – between 12 and 15 kilometers per day – and Perigeo (the closest point to the earth) that It drops by about 1-2 kilometers per daywith an acceleration of the descent as the object loses altitude.
Probable date. The current forecast places the return between the end of the May 10 and the early hours of 11 May (UTC), but with an uncertainty of ± 2 days. The fluctuations in the latest updates have been attributed to an underestimation of the solar activity, which affects the atmospheric density and therefore on the orbital decay rate. After a temporary trend around 11 May, the models now seem to converge again on 10 May as a more likely date.
Seen by telescopes. In the meantime, the Ralf Vandebergh satellite tratier has managed to capture a series of images of the capsule in terrestrial orbit. Some frames seem to show an elongated structure on one side of the capsule, hypothesized by Vandebergh himself as a possible parachute escape.
“It is not impossible that the object is rolling, therefore the parachute could sometimes be visible,” the expert observed. However, Langbroek specified: «I have strong doubts about the fact that the images in question show significant details. I believe that the “detail” is the result of the camera movement or atmospheric distortion “, also referring to previous images analyzed in 2022.
Return to the earth. More than fifty years since its launch, the uncontrolled return Of Kosmos 482 It represents a rare case of “spatial archeology in motion”, capable of fascinating both scientists and fans of space exploration history. There are still many unknowns – from the final trajectory to the possible impact – but one thing is certain: The Soviet Lander, born to touch Venus’s ground, will end his journey to Earth.
