The treaty that has been the global compass against the climate crisis since 2015 is an excellent starting point, but more ambitious commitments are needed at COP30.
The Paris Agreement, the first legally binding global treaty to combat climate change, turns 10 years old: it was 12 December 2015, when the 196 States participating in the Paris Conference of the Parties (COP21) established the commitment to “keep the increase in the average global temperature well below 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, and continue the action aimed at limiting this increase to 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels”.
Today, 10 years and 9 cops later, at the COP30 in Belém we take stock of this instrument, which has given so much in the fight against the climate crisis, but which has also shown some limitations.
How has the climate changed this decade? What did the Paris Agreement achieve, and what is missing?
Global warming is increasing, but less than estimates from 10 years ago
The expected increase in average global temperature by the end of the century is now +2.5-2.9 °C compared to the pre-industrial era: too much to avoid catastrophic effects on the Earth system (melting ice, rising sea levels, heat waves, but we could continue); however less than the 3.8°C feared when the Agreement was signed in 2015. This is still a dangerous trajectory, but less than we would have had if we had not signed the treaty.
The last 10 years have been the hottest ever
Each of the years between 2015 and 2024 (exactly the decade of “life” of the Paris Agreement) was one of the 10 warmest ever recorded and 2024 – also due to the effect of the El Niño climate phenomenon – was the warmest of the last 125,000 years.
Depending on the global temperatures we will record in November and December 2025, that will also ultimately be the second or third hottest year ever. And it is possible that the threshold of +1.5 °C set as a limit by the Paris Agreement will be exceeded for the third consecutive year. Even if it were to be a temporary breach and temperatures were to then re-establish at lower values, crossing this red line would have devastating effects on ecosystems and vulnerable communities.
Emissions continue to increase
Since 2015, concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have grown by 5.64% (reaching 422 parts per million in 2024) and those of methane by 5.33%, reaching 1901 parts per billion in 2024. These are the cumulative effects of over 150 years of unbridled use of fossil fuels, of which we are still paying the consequences today, but the fact that the need for abandonment (“transitioning away”) of oil, gas and coal was only mentioned in the 2023 COP tells us that progress on this front will be very slow.
The Paris Agreement is criticized for having a “too flexible” approach, which leaves the signatory countries free to decide independently when and by how much they will reduce emissions. This has allowed many to do the minimum, or even hinder the process of gradually abandoning these polluting sources. According to Climate Analythics, a non-profit organization on climate science and policy, “this is not a failure of the framework of the Paris Agreement, it is a failure of the collective ambition to live up to its intent.”
The biggest obstacles: what about the Agreement is not working
According to the World Resources Institute’s State of Climate Action 2025, which provides a roadmap for how progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement is progressing, climate action in every sector has failed – even when launched in the right direction – to meet the commitment and speed needed to meet that +1.5°C limit.
Some of the most unsatisfactory progress has been seen in efforts to prevent forest loss and other forms of land use change, to move away from coal-fired electricity generation (the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector), and to increase climate financing efforts, particularly from public sources.
Other critical points? «Public funding for fossil fuels – we read in the summary of the report – has grown on average by 75 billion dollars per year since 2014; progress made in the decarbonisation of steel has remained essentially stagnant; and the share of trips taken in passenger cars, many of which still use internal combustion engines, continues to increase.”
Speaking of financing, although independent experts estimate that 1,300 billion dollars per year are needed between now and 2035 to meet the most urgent needs imposed by the climate crisis, at COP29 in Baku the industrialized countries promised at least 300 per year by 2035 to developing countries. The crux of COP30 will be understanding how to get to those 1,300, a question not only of economics but of climate justice: in July 2025, a historic ruling by the Court of The Hague clarified that polluting countries are legally required to reduce their emissions and compensate those who pay the consequences today.
The renewables boom: what’s working
The Paris Agreement has consecrated a decade of unexpected growth for renewable energy, which has just overtaken coal as the main source of electricity generation. “Today we invest twice as much in renewables as in fossil fuels, renewables meet 80% of global electricity growth demand, solar has developed 15 times faster than expected 10 years ago,” says Christiana Figueres, a diplomat and long-time secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, one of the main architects of the Paris Agreement.
The adoption of electric vehicles is also already 40% higher than the projections made in 2015 by the International Energy Agency for today, and in 2030 it will be 66% higher. «The progress seen in the real economy tells us that we are walking in the right direction, even if too slowly», concludes Figueres.
