COP30 ended amid bitter divisions between countries and broken promises. No concrete steps on mitigation, cautious progress on adaptation.
The COP of forests organized in the heart of the Amazon ended without concrete measures to stop deforestation and without an agreement on how to abandon fossil fuels, mainly responsible for harmful emissions and global warming. The main political tool to stem the climate crisis has brought home modest results and a wealth of disappointments, which we will try to briefly summarize below.
Fossil fuels: no roadmap
In the first days of COP30, cautious hopes had filtered through regarding the possibility that the conference would conclude with a concrete and ambitious roadmap, complete with dates and deadlines, for a gradual and orderly exit from fossil fuels within a decade. Word had been circulating about the possibility that this roadmap for abandoning fossil fuels could even be included in a cover decision, a final political declaration that summarizes the collective position of the COP and that guides subsequent climate policy actions. This did not happen.
In 2023, at COP28 in Dubai, world leaders agreed on the need to gradually diverge (transitioning away) from fossil fuels, then for the first time mentioned as the main cause of climate change. But a concrete plan on how and when to emancipate ourselves from these sources never arrived, and precisely this was expected from COP30.
The discussions at COP30 saw a coalition of the willing with over 80 countries in favor of a clear commitment to the transition from fossil fuels, including Colombia, the United Kingdom and France (Italy did not join this appeal: for further information) facing each other, with very harsh tones, and a group led by Saudi Arabia and other petrostates, plus Russia. This laceration has had the effect that the abandonment of fossil fuels has been relegated to a voluntary commitment and not the legally binding decision that was aimed for.
Furthermore, the Global mutirao, the final text of the COP30 decisions which takes its name from the Brazilian tradition of common mobilization to achieve an objective, while confirming its intention to remain faithful to the Paris Agreement, does not contain any reference to fossil fuels: in short, it does not explain as an attempt should be made to limit the increase in temperatures to within +1.5 °C.
The COP of forests? In short…
No roadmap even to stop deforestation: it is one of the biggest disappointments for COP30, held in a city near the mouth of the Amazon River. At the COP that hosted the largest number of representatives of indigenous peoples, participating countries should have made clear what they intended to do to fulfill the goal of halting forest loss by 2030 made two years ago at the COP in Dubai.
All that was achieved was a voluntary agreement, and some weak collateral progress, such as the $6 billion collectively promised to support communities working to protect rainforests (in the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, Brazil’s fund for the conservation and restoration of tropical forests).
More funds for adaptation
There was an agreement to triple funding for adaptation (measures to prevent or minimize climate damage) for developing countries, but still within the $300 billion in climate finance allocated at the last COP. Around 120 billion per year of those 300 will now be dedicated to adaptation measures in the most vulnerable countries, but not before 2035, even if the date initially hoped for was 2030. Furthermore, many hoped that that figure would be added to the 300 billion already allocated, but this was not the case.
“This should have been the COP of adaptation,” said the representative of Colombia, the country that perhaps most of all supported an ambitious line at COP30, but the result “is far from reflecting the scale of the challenges that the parties, especially the most vulnerable, are facing on the ground.”
Right transition
Another progress is the recognition of the concept of “just transition” in the final text: it means helping workers who will be affected in the processes of abandoning fossil fuels and switching to renewable energy, who should not be left behind but helped to find jobs in cleaner sectors. However, no specific financing is mentioned, nor have clear rules been adopted regarding the exploitation of rare minerals essential to the energy transition, due to opposition from China and Russia.
As for the commitments made by various countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs), those participating in COP30 were supposed to present new commitments before the conference, but very few did so. However, the COP agreed a program to address the shortfall in these contributions in an accelerated manner, with an update to COP31, to be held in Turkey, but with the work managed by Australia.
