Real discounts or just marketing? Here’s how to understand if Black Friday promotions are really advantageous
Introduction
Every November, between countdowns and crossed-out prices, distinguishing real Black Friday offers from simple routine promotions is not trivial. Experts follow a simple rule: first you look at the price history, then you decide.
Tools like Keepa and CamelCamelCamel show how exceptional or just average a markdown is.
Let’s see how to recognize Black Friday offers with a practical method: a few tricks and some attention to times, returns and seller reliability.
Because it’s not easy to find the “real” offers
Psychology plays its part: the anchoring to the list price (often inflated), the rush induced by timers and “last pieces”, the confusion between early deals and Friday discounts. The result is that a discount “seems” bigger than it is. The antidote is to compare the current price with the actual prices of the product in recent months. If the decline doesn’t beat the recent average or get close to an all-time low, it’s probably not the opportunity it seems.
The historical price method (Keepa and CamelCamelCamel)
The idea is elementary: look at the price graph over time and understand where today’s offer falls. Keepa And CamelCamelCamel (two online tools widely used to monitor product prices and understand whether an offer is really convenient or just apparent) do this very well for products sold on Amazon.
A quick read works like this: look at the 90-day trend to understand the recent “normal price”; then take a look at the 365-day span to see cycles, peaks and valleys related to major promotional events. If the current price is within 5% of the all-time low or drops approximately 10–15% below the 90-day average, we are looking at a promotion that deserves attention. Setting alerts with a target price (historic minimum plus a small margin) helps you not to buy instinctively and to act only when the signal is really good.
Real discounts or fictitious discounts? How to recognize them
To understand how to recognize Black Friday offers, a comprehensive check is needed. In addition to the number on the tag, it matters who is selling (preferably with solid logistics and warranty), what is included (useful accessories or just fillers), and whether the product is new or refurbished. The “monstrous” percentages are not in themselves suspicious, but must be read in the light of history: a TV from the previous year can drop more, a latest generation headset is unlikely to halve that. The important thing is not to be guided by the “theoretical” price list, but by the average street price and the actual minimums.
When current and historical prices converge, the “true offer” stops being an impression and becomes a data.
Black Friday tricks that make life easier
A small toolkit makes everything quicker. Keepa extensions and CamelCamelCamel graphs show the history on the page; comparators (Idealo, Trovaprezzi, PriceSpy) help verify the price outside Amazon; alert systems and wish lists keep everything under control. It is not necessary to install everything: all you need is a history tool, one for comparing stores and a wishlist with the precise model and its target price. Those who want the best can save a screenshot of the best offer: it comes in handy if, in the following days, you ask for a price match or discover a further discount.
Purchasing strategy: times, budget and returns
The strategy is built before Friday. You decide the budget, narrow the list to a few key products and activate the alerts. If a price reaches an all-time low already in the “early deals”, it is worth seizing it: it is not a given that it will return. During the Black Friday weekend and Cyber Monday it is worth checking the highly rotated products several times, knowing that the conditions often make the difference: shipping, Italian guarantee, extended Christmas returns. After purchasing, testing the product immediately is part of prudence: this way you can take advantage of the return window without stress.
Our team of experts carefully evaluates the available promotions, selecting only the most interesting and truly convenient ones. In this way we help you distinguish real discounts from marketing strategies, so as to know during Black Friday where it is really worth spending.
How can I tell if it’s a real Black Friday offer?
Check the price history: historic low or strong gap below the recent average are positive signs.
Are the crossed out prices reliable?
Not always. Measure value against the real street price, not against the list price.
Is it better to buy first or wait?
If you hit an all-time low before Friday, buy. Not all products are back in stock.
Three Black Friday tricks to remember?
Price history, wishlist with target price, shipping/return verification before paying.
