The life expectancy has settled around 80 years: a statistical study estimates that those born in the eighties will hardly reach 100.
If you were born in the eighties and thought you had a good chance of getting to turn off 100 candles … we bring bad news: a research published on Pnas claims that the life expectancy in the richest countries is increasing at a much less supported pace than the first half of the last century, and that it has stopped around 80 years.
Child mortality. What has been discovered is in line with a study that we had spoken to you last year, which claimed that the growth of life expectancy did not go hand in hand with the pressing of the progress of medical science, nutrition, quality of existence.
The main reason? At the beginning of the twentieth century, progress in the medical and pharmaceutical fields made it possible to drastically reduce child mortality; Now we are unable to reduce that of the older age groups in equal measure.
Slowdowns in progress. The researchers carried out a series of calculations based on the data of the Human Mortality Database, which collects information on the mortality and population of different countries of the world. Using six different statistical techniques, scholars estimated the evolution of life expectancy in the coming years.
It emerged that while between 1900 and 1938 life expectancy had increased by about five and a half months at each new generation-marking a difference of 18 years between those who was born in 1900 (which would live on average up to 62 years) and those who were born in 1938 (who could well hope to turn off 80 candles)-between 1938 and 2000 the increase in life expectancy had fallen considerably, passing to 2.5-3.5 months for 2.5-3.5 months. generation. “According to our calculations, those who were born in 1980 will not live up to 100 years and none of the cohorts included in our study will reach this goal,” says José Andrade, coordinator of the study.
Expectations for the future. Experts point out that governments should take into account this slowdown by adapting health and pension systems. At the same time, life expectancy affects personal choices in terms of savings and long -term planning. Air quality, physical activity or diet are factors that affect longevity, but not as much as the scientific discoveries of the first half of the twentieth century, such as antibiotics.
“The unprecedented increase in the life expectancy recorded in the first half of the twentieth century seems to be a phenomenon that is difficult to replicate in the near future,” explains Héctor Pifarré I Arolas, one of the authors.
However, it is important to emphasize that we still speak of forecasts, as such subject to unexpected events such as pandemics or the discovery of new medical treatments.
