We know the environmental benefits of reaching net-zero, i.e. the balance between the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted and that sequestered or absorbed: now a study published in Science Advances estimated that, if implemented today, mitigation measures to achieve net zero emissions could save us 207,000 premature deaths and $2.2 trillion in economic damage from air pollution globally by 2030.
The study. To reach their conclusions, the authors started from data from the ENGAGE Global Scenarios database, which collects global projections on energy, economy and environment under different climate policy scenarios, and from TM5-FASST, a model that estimates how changes in emissions affect air quality and human health, to estimate the concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres) and ozone pollution in different areas of the world.
They then estimated how many deaths could be avoided if countries quickly adopted policies aimed at achieving climate neutrality, finding that if we acted now we could reduce the health and economic damage caused by air pollution within five years.
China and India. China and India would benefit most from reaching net-zero, as they would save themselves 84,000 and 73,000 premature deaths respectively by 2030 – around three-quarters of the global total. From an economic point of view, in the same period of time China could avoid 922 billion dollars in damages.
The authors, while acknowledging that these are estimates and as such subject to a certain margin of error, state that the results “highlight the importance of scenario design in defining effective mitigation policies”, and that decarbonisation could not only limit global warming, but also “offer significant co-benefits, in particular improved public health and greater economic prosperity”.
