In view of the COP30 to be held in Brazil next November, the second Global Tipping Points Report has been released, a report created by 160 scientists that monitors the so-called tipping pointsor tipping points – thresholds beyond which the consequences of climate change become catastrophic.
The news – as was to be expected – is not rosy: we have in fact passed the first climatic point of no return regarding tropical coral reefs, on which almost a billion people and a quarter of all marine life depend.
Goodbye tropical coral reefs. Warm-water coral reefs are dying following repeated mass bleaching events: with global warming currently at +1.4°C, reefs are passing their thermal tipping point (estimated at 1.2°C, with a range of 1 to 1.5°C). Even if the temperature stopped at +1.5 °C, it is practically certain (with a probability greater than 99%) that the large tropical coral reefs will disappear: the only (unattainable) hope is that the global temperature will drop to +1 °C.
«The findings of this report are extremely alarming. The fact that warm-water coral reefs are passing their thermal tipping point is a tragedy for nature and the people who depend on them for food and income,” comments Mike Barrett, one of the report’s authors.
Towards new tipping points. Scientists warn that the death of coral reefs is just the first of several tipping points we are approaching, such as the irreversible melting of the polar ice caps, the collapse of a major ocean current system and the decay of the Amazon rainforest.
In particular, the report highlights that the current AMOC (which stands for Atlantic Southern Overturning Circulationi.e. meridional overturning of the Atlantic circulation) risks collapsing before 2°C of global warming is reached, causing much harsher winters in north-western Europe, interrupting the monsoons in West Africa and India and reducing agricultural harvests in much of the world.
Positive tipping points. The authors invite you to stare tipping points positive, some already overcome – such as the use of solar and wind energy worldwide or the spread of electric vehicles –, others almost achieved – such as in the freight transport sector, where the adoption of sustainable technologies such as electric trucks or green fuels could accelerate exponentially.
