Not that it was needed, but a study published on Nature Sustainability has added a new reason to commit to achieving net zero emissions and combating climate change: if global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels (not a remote possibility at all), in 2050 the number of people living in extreme heat conditions will be more than double than now.
The study is the most detailed to date on how and when different regions of the world will have to deal with extreme temperatures. Using computer simulations, scientists have drawn a map of the areas that will be most affected, estimating how many more days of extreme heat they will have to endure each year.
Almost half the world melted from the heat. The ones who will perceive the greatest difference compared to today will be the northern countries, not at all accustomed to extreme heat and therefore with infrastructures not prepared to combat it: compared to the decade 2006-2016, during which the global temperature exceeded +1 °C above pre-industrial levels, an increase of +2°C would double the hot days in Austria and Canada, and would mark a +150% in the United Kingdom, Sweden and Finland, a +200% in Norway and a + 230% in Ireland. Overall, people affected by extreme heat worldwide would rise from 1.54 billion to 3.79 billion (equal to 41% of the global population estimated for 2050).
Act immediately. The simulations also found that the biggest change will occur around +1.5°C, which is where we are now: “We need to intervene much earlier, strengthening adaptation and mitigation measures,” underlines Radhika Khosla, one of the authors. “Our findings should be a wake-up call: exceeding 1.5°C of warming will have unprecedented effects on everything from education and health to migration and agriculture.”
